HOW DOES SCIENCE PREDICT THE FUTURE

Ghafari, Alli; Abdollahi Nia, Masoud

doi:10.22047/ijee.2020.158875.1596

HOW DOES SCIENCE PREDICT THE FUTURE

Document Type : Scientific - Research

Authors

Alli Ghafari ¹

Masoud Abdollahi Nia ²

¹ Professor, Professor, Dept. of Mechanical Engineering K. N. Toosi Univ. of Technology

² Khajeh Nasir Toosi University of Technology (KNTU), Tehran, Iran

https://doi.org/10.22047/ijee.2020.158875.1596

Abstract

In this paper, it is shown that in many cases, science can predict the future. Based on the available information of the real system, the scientific method for future prediction is to develop a virtual model with similar response to the real system. The classical models are usually presented with a set of linear / nonlinear, ordinary / partial differential equations. The necessary and sufficient condition for future prediction is given by three axioms; A model with accurate description of the real system, perfect knowledge of the initial conditions, and perfect knowledge of present and future values of inputs to the system. In reality, none of these conditions are perfectly realizable and each axiom has some uncertainties. The failure in future prediction is exactly due to these uncertainties. The model description as the major axiom is always accompanied with uncertainty and although, there is no way to vanish it, there are different methods to reduce it. Soft computing is one of the recent approaches in the past few decades, not only used for modeling of systems in the field of engineering systems, but also used in the field of human sciences such as economy, management and social sciences.

Keywords

Prediction of future

virtual model

uncertainty

initial conditions

inputs

control engineering

20.1001.1.16072316.1399.22.86.1.8

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